A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
